The Parish Line

posted by m.d.


The NOPD says 209 people were murdered in New Orleans in 2007. I found 206 media reports of murders in 2007. For the rest of this post, I will use my numbers because I know where they came from.

In Jefferson Parish, the Sheriff’s Office reports 30 murders through September. In this December 28 T-P article, JPSO says there were 44 murders in unincorporated Jefferson Parish in 2007. I found 13 murders in October, November, and December on the JP Crime Tracker map. Add the Dec 28 murder, and that adds up to 44 in 2007.

Kenner PD says there were 9 murders or non-negligent manslaughters through October there. I can find 8 media reports or KPD press releases for murders in the same period. Since I am not sure if there was one non-negligent manslaughter, I will only count 8. I found one more media report of a murder in Kenner in November, which makes 9 total in 2007.

I know of two in Gretna. I believe there were none in the other JP cities.

That makes at least 55 murders in Jefferson Parish.

206 in New Orleans. 55 in Jefferson Parish. That’s a big difference.

Here’s a bigger difference. New Orleans has an estimated population of around 300,000. Jefferson Parish has about 445,000 people in it (98% of pre-Katrina).

206 murders with 300,000 people equals a murder rate of 68 murders per 100,000 people.

55 murders with 445,000 people equals a murder rate of 12 murders per 100,000 people.

That's a big difference.

The combined rate is better – 261 murders with 745,000 people equals a murder rate of 35 murders per 100,000 people. But, it masks the problems in the New Orleans if you combine them. Geographically, only a parish line divides New Orleans and Jefferson Parish. There should not be this big a difference.

Official numbers will come out later this year. There might be more murders in Jefferson Parish than I am counting, but not enough to catch up to New Orleans.

Graphing the murders in JP and NOLA by month using my numbers, the second half of the year stands out. When murders went down in New Orleans, they went up in JP, and vice versa.
I’ll have to think about what that means.

More Boots on the Streets

Actually, the same amount of boots. They will just be out there longer, wearing out their soles a little more:

Starting this week, uniformed officers in most New Orleans police districts will be on duty 12 hours a day, five days a week.

The move to 60-hour workweeks, proposed last month by Police Superintendent Warren Riley, means more officers will be on the street to battle the city's seemingly intractable violent-crime problem. The mandatory overtime shifts, opposed by two of the city's largest police associations, are scheduled to end at the close of the year.

The overtime patrols will be in five districts only: 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th, and 7th. These districts are the most violent districts. 136 murders out of the 151 murders in New Orleans this year (that I have counted going by media reports) occurred in these five districts.

Here’s the murder breakdown by district:

1st – 31 murders
2nd – 17 murders
3rd – 2 murders
4th – 13 murders
5th – 35 murders
6th – 27 murders
7th – 26 murders
8th – 0 murders

September had 13 murders by my count. That is the lowest number since February, which also had 13 murders (by my count). Interestingly, none of murders were in the 1st District, which has one of the highest totals for the year (31). There were six murders in August in the 1st District. I hope that is a sign of positive things to come.

At the end of the third quarter of 2007, I count 151 murders this year in the city of New Orleans. In a city with a population of 300,000, that comes to a murder rate of 67 murders per 100,000 residents. We are averaging a murder every 1.8 days, basically a murder every other day. We are on track for 201 murders by the end of the year. If nothing changes, 50 more human beings will die a violent death on the streets of New Orleans. Most of those who die will be black men under thirty, shot to death.

Even with two of the lowest monthly totals for the year, the third quarter still had more murders than the first or second quarters:

First Quarter – 48 murders
*Jan – 17
*Feb – 13
*Mar – 18

Second Quarter – 50 murders
*Apr – 15
*May – 15
*Jun – 20

Third Quarter – 53 murders
*Jul – 14
*Aug – 26
*Sep – 13

My numbers differ from the NOPD’s official numbers because the NOPD records a murder in the month that the victim dies. If a person is shot in February but dies in March, the NOPD records it as a March murder. I count it as a February murder.

Also, I count murders solely by media reports. If a murder has not been reported by the media, I don’t know about it. For example, the T-P article says there were 29 murders in August. I know one June victim died in August, so the NOPD would count that as an August murder. However, I can not find media reports on the other two murders. I can not count them if I have no evidence to cite.

Therefore, my count should be considered the lowest count possible. There are “at least” 151 murders in New Orleans this year. Unfortunately, there might be more that I don’t know about.